By Eleanor Ever Loyal
Election Day: all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are decided today; the first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern, and the Supreme Court hears a Colorado preschool case.
It is Election Day. Polls are open, Congress is away from Washington, and tonight the first results begin to answer the day’s only governing question: who holds the next Congress.
The Day Ahead
The vote. All 435 House seats are on the ballot, along with 35 Senate seats — 33 regular elections plus special elections in Florida and Ohio — and governorships in 36 states. First polls close at 6:00 p.m. Eastern in parts of Indiana and Kentucky; the last close at 1:00 a.m. Eastern Wednesday in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands.
Congress. Neither chamber meets today. The House is in a district work period with no floor schedule this week; the Senate’s next sitting is a pro forma session Thursday, November 5, at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, with no business expected (Senate Daily Press schedule). Both chambers return for business Monday, November 9.
The White House. The published daily guidance lists a closed-press day: executive time at 8:00 a.m. Eastern, policy meetings at 11:00 a.m., 12:30 p.m., and 2:30 p.m., a 1:30 p.m. meeting with the U.S. ambassador to Portugal, signing time at 4:00 p.m., and a 7:00 p.m. election-night viewing reception in the East Room. No public appearances are listed.
The Supreme Court. The Court hears argument at 10:00 a.m. Eastern in St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy (No. 25-581), from the Tenth Circuit. Catholic preschools challenge Colorado’s requirement that schools in its universal preschool program follow the program’s equal-opportunity enrollment rule; they argue the condition violates the First Amendment, and Colorado argues the rule is neutral and applies to every participating school.
The Pentagon. No Defense Department public briefing is listed in the sources checked this morning.
The Federal Register. Today’s issue includes a Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration proposed rule on liquefied natural gas facilities. The CDC’s amended order requiring air passengers to attest they have not been in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the prior 21 days takes effect tonight at 11:59 p.m. Eastern (published October 30; FR Doc. 2026-22211).
What Moved
The courts and the California ballots. On Monday the Supreme Court denied the Justice Department’s emergency application (No. 26A624) asking it to require California to segregate mail ballots from more than 20,000 registered voters the government says are likely noncitizens. The unsigned order gave no reasons and noted no dissent. A district judge denied the same request on October 28, and a divided Ninth Circuit panel declined it on October 30; the underlying case continues. The Court also heard argument Monday in Younge (No. 25-352) and Maxwell (No. 25-5930).
Early voting closed at a record level. The University of Florida Election Lab’s tally as of Monday, 8:47 p.m. Eastern, counted 57.5 million early ballots — 25.7 million by mail, 31.9 million in person — against 45.9 million early votes in all of 2022. The totals measure participation, not how anyone voted.
The closing arguments. President Trump closed the campaign Monday with remarks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool devoted largely to his Washington renovation projects, plus closed-press tele-rallies in the White House guidance. Republicans argue late-deciding voters and Election Day turnout can preserve their majorities. Democrats argue early-vote totals and polling averages point to gains in both chambers. Those are the campaigns’ claims; the count begins tonight.
Iran. Reuters reported Monday that the United States struck targets on Iran’s Qeshm Island, in the Strait of Hormuz, citing Wall Street Journal reporting and U.S. officials. One official described the strikes as limited, not a resumption of major combat. U.S. Central Command did not immediately comment. President Trump said Monday a deal with Tehran could happen; Tehran said contacts are continuing (Reuters).
The Power Count
The Senate stands at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. Of the 35 seats on today’s ballot, Republicans hold 22 and Democrats 13. Democrats need a net gain of four to reach 51; a 50–50 Senate stays Republican because Vice President Vance casts tie-breaking votes. In the House, Republicans held 218 seats to Democrats’ 214, with one independent and two vacancies, when the chamber last sat; 218 of 435 make a majority.
The final forecasts, labeled as their makers present them: Decision Desk HQ’s model (November 2) gives Democrats an 84 percent chance of winning the House (projected 241 seats) and a 65 percent chance of winning the Senate (projected 52 seats), with Democrats taking both chambers in 63 percent of simulations (forecast). The Cook Political Report’s final ratings (November 1–2) count 222 House districts favoring Democrats and 18 Toss Ups, 14 held by Republicans; on November 2 Cook moved Michigan’s Senate race to Lean Democrat, leaving six Senate Toss Ups — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas (analysis). Fox News’s final power rankings rate Senate control a toss-up. Forecasts are expectations, not results; this column reports race calls only from the Associated Press or Decision Desk HQ, and none has been made.
One Thing to Watch
The order in which the map speaks. North Carolina and Ohio, closing at 7:30 p.m. Eastern, offer the first Senate tests. The 8:00 p.m. wave brings Maine, Michigan, Texas, and most of Kansas. Iowa closes at 9:00 p.m. Alaska closes last, and its ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18, so its Senate race may not resolve tonight; Maine also uses ranked-choice voting. If no candidate wins a majority in Georgia’s Senate race, a runoff follows on December 1, and Senate control may not be known before Wednesday. Whatever tonight decides, the current Congress returns November 9 and must replace the stopgap funding measure expiring December 11; the Congress elected today begins its term on January 3, 2027.
— Eleanor Ever Loyal
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