By Eleanor Ever Loyal
Election eve: Congress is out, the Court is in session, and more than 50 million ballots are already cast.
Washington is quiet today because the decision has moved to the voters. Congress is out of session, the President is campaigning, and the Supreme Court opens its November argument session. Tomorrow, Tuesday, November 3, voters choose all 435 House members and 35 senators.
The Day Ahead
Congress. The House is in a district work period; the House Press Gallery lists the next votes for Monday, November 9. The Senate meets only in a pro forma session at 4:30 p.m. Eastern, with no business expected, according to the Senate Daily Press schedule. The Senate returns for business on November 9 at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, to resume consideration of the motion to proceed to H.R. 2347, the Survivor Justice Tax Prevention Act — described in the schedule as the legislative vehicle for permitting reform — with a cloture vote at approximately 5:30 p.m. No roll-call votes had been recorded as of this morning.
The White House. The White House daily guidance lists executive time at 8:00 a.m. Eastern (closed press), nine closed-press tele-rallies — at 11:00 a.m., 11:45 a.m., 4:00 p.m., 4:45 p.m., 5:30 p.m., 6:15 p.m., 7:00 p.m., 7:45 p.m., and 8:15 p.m. Eastern — and public remarks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.
The Supreme Court. The Court begins its November argument session today, hearing argument in Younge v. Fulton Judicial Circuit District Attorney’s Office (No. 25-352) and Maxwell v. Thomas, Warden (No. 25-5930). No opinions are scheduled in the sources checked this morning.
The Pentagon. No Defense Department briefing appears on the public schedule in the sources checked this morning.
The Federal Register. Today’s issue (Volume 91, Number 210) includes Proclamation 11077, signed October 28, which closes a Section 232 investigation into robotics and industrial machinery imports without new tariffs, and directs the Commerce Department and the U.S. Trade Representative to negotiate with trading partners and report within 180 days.
What Moved
Early and mail voting has now closed in most states, and both parties spent the weekend making their closing arguments. Republicans argue that late-deciding voters and Election Day turnout can preserve their majorities. Democrats argue that early-vote totals and polling averages point to gains in both chambers. Those are the campaigns’ claims; the count begins tomorrow night.
The Power Count
The Senate stands at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. Of the 35 seats on tomorrow’s ballot — 33 regular elections plus special elections in Florida and Ohio for the seats vacated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance — Republicans hold 22 and Democrats 13. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51; a 50–50 Senate stays under Republican control because Vice President Vance casts tie-breaking votes.
In the House, all 435 seats are on the ballot and 218 make a majority. The Cook Political Report’s closing assessment (October 30) lists seven Senate races as Toss Ups — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas — six held by Republicans and one, Michigan, by Democrats; it projects a Democratic House gain of 12 to 25 seats, up to 240 seats, with 18 House races rated Toss Ups, and a Democratic Senate gain in the range of two to six seats, calling Democrats slight favorites for Senate control (analysis). Decision Desk HQ’s forecast model (updated October 31) gives Democrats an 83 percent chance of winning the House, projecting 241 seats, and a 63 percent chance of winning the Senate, projecting 52 seats (forecast). Other forecasters are more cautious on the Senate: Fox News’s final power rankings rate Senate control a toss-up, and analyst Karl Rove projects a 50–50 Senate, which would remain under Republican control. The RealClearPolling generic-ballot average stands at Democrats +8.3 points (reported November 2). Prediction-market prices, which are not polls, put Democratic House control at 93 percent on Polymarket US and 92 percent on Kalshi, and Senate control at 68 percent on both (reported November 2). Forecasts are expectations, not results; this column reports race calls only from the Associated Press or Decision Desk HQ, and none has been made.
The Scenarios
Decision Desk HQ’s October 31 simulations divide the outcomes four ways: Democrats win both chambers in 61 percent of simulations; Democrats win the House while Republicans hold the Senate in 22 percent; Republicans hold both chambers in 15 percent; and Republicans win the House while Democrats take the Senate in 1 percent (figures do not sum to 100 due to rounding). Each outcome carries a different governing map for the next two years — unified Democratic control, a divided Congress under either party’s Senate, or continued Republican control — and tomorrow’s count, not the models, will choose among them.
One Thing to Watch
The order in which results arrive tomorrow. The first polls close at 6:00 p.m. Eastern in parts of Indiana and Kentucky; Georgia and South Carolina follow at 7:00 p.m., North Carolina and Ohio at 7:30 p.m., and Maine, Michigan, and Texas at 8:00 p.m. Iowa closes at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, and most of Alaska at midnight Eastern. North Carolina and Ohio will offer the earliest tests of whether the forecasts track the actual vote. Maine and Alaska use ranked-choice voting in federal races, and Alaska’s ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for November 18; any race within the margin of counting may run past election night, and Senate control may not be known before Wednesday. If no Georgia Senate candidate wins a majority, a runoff would follow on December 1.
The Congress elected tomorrow will not sit until January 3, 2027. The current Congress returns November 9 and must replace the stopgap funding measure expiring December 11.
— Eleanor Ever Loyal
From The Library — the estate of our family.